* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 112 111 109 101 98 93 96 87 67 42 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 113 112 111 109 101 98 93 96 87 67 41 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 114 112 110 107 99 91 96 98 75 45 34 28 32 35 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 12 8 12 13 5 23 52 47 31 34 33 27 15 10 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 0 0 -4 0 5 10 2 3 8 4 1 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 227 226 246 282 269 284 248 200 189 166 183 193 195 183 205 264 250 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 27.8 26.8 27.6 27.5 22.1 17.1 15.1 11.6 7.6 5.4 9.4 8.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 151 149 149 134 122 134 134 90 73 71 67 64 63 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 138 138 135 132 116 106 120 118 80 68 67 65 62 N/A 63 64 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -48.9 -48.4 -48.3 -49.9 -51.4 -52.2 -52.5 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.6 3.2 1.6 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 42 44 45 44 51 62 63 56 58 60 64 73 77 70 80 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 40 40 41 42 39 40 41 53 55 47 34 26 22 18 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 80 65 56 47 47 89 141 200 194 206 227 239 213 182 93 107 91 200 MB DIV 47 36 0 18 21 23 63 84 99 118 89 82 93 58 39 39 17 700-850 TADV 15 12 14 5 -4 5 5 6 70 14 -8 2 -4 -21 -5 43 70 LAND (KM) 1072 1080 1107 1116 1138 1246 1356 1162 710 333 25 54 -9 68 160 404 733 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.6 25.7 26.6 27.4 29.0 30.7 33.5 38.0 41.8 44.6 47.3 49.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.8 58.5 59.5 60.5 61.7 62.4 61.6 61.2 61.9 62.5 60.9 56.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 9 11 19 20 17 14 16 16 11 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 37 34 32 12 4 14 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -1. -2. -7. -17. -28. -37. -48. -59. -67. -75. -82. -86. -89. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -4. -2. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -3. -3. -2. 12. 14. 2. -16. -27. -32. -36. -35. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -14. -17. -22. -19. -28. -48. -73. -91.-102.-109.-110.-118. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.5 57.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 937.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 3.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 28( 65) 23( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 39 71( 82) 14( 85) 1( 85) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 113 112 111 109 101 98 93 96 87 67 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 113 112 110 102 99 94 97 88 68 42 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 108 100 97 92 95 86 66 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 95 92 87 90 81 61 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 85 80 83 74 54 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 113 104 98 95 90 87 82 85 76 56 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 113 112 103 97 93 90 85 88 79 59 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS