* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 105 104 104 100 97 94 90 91 74 52 35 21 16 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 110 108 105 104 104 100 97 94 90 91 74 50 33 19 26 26 N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 107 105 104 103 101 95 92 92 84 55 34 31 30 33 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 18 16 10 13 4 14 39 54 48 25 36 36 30 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -4 -5 -1 0 -2 4 10 13 -6 4 0 0 -1 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 231 228 229 235 262 279 292 225 192 189 169 190 205 200 219 227 239 SST (C) 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 27.7 27.3 26.3 25.2 17.5 17.1 14.4 9.5 7.0 8.9 9.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 147 151 153 151 149 133 130 120 110 75 72 69 66 65 63 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 135 138 140 137 131 115 114 106 96 69 67 65 65 64 62 60 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -50.2 -49.2 -48.6 -48.2 -49.2 -49.8 -50.8 -52.1 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.6 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 43 44 46 44 46 56 60 60 53 56 59 60 71 73 68 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 38 38 39 40 40 40 45 53 47 37 29 21 21 22 17 850 MB ENV VOR 82 83 70 66 52 55 121 173 217 203 183 223 224 198 168 99 84 200 MB DIV 58 43 33 2 18 3 64 55 86 154 67 87 61 43 65 63 28 700-850 TADV 11 16 19 22 5 0 -3 12 19 91 0 -2 -2 5 1 9 37 LAND (KM) 1061 1034 1023 1037 1070 1143 1286 1245 914 513 145 1 103 63 43 316 454 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.3 26.3 28.0 29.7 32.1 35.7 39.6 43.3 46.0 47.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.4 58.2 59.0 59.9 61.7 62.8 62.7 62.1 62.2 63.0 62.8 61.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 10 10 15 19 19 16 11 13 17 16 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 28 48 39 26 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -23. -32. -40. -49. -58. -65. -72. -77. -79. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -1. -3. -6. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 4. 14. 6. -9. -21. -29. -28. -26. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -6. -10. -13. -16. -20. -19. -36. -58. -75. -89. -94. -94.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.6 56.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 848.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.05 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 4.4% 3.7% 3.3% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 5.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 26( 62) 22( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 16 29( 40) 38( 63) 4( 65) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 105 104 104 100 97 94 90 91 74 50 33 19 26 26 DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 106 105 105 101 98 95 91 92 75 51 34 20 27 27 DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 105 101 98 95 91 92 75 51 34 20 27 27 DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 100 96 93 90 86 87 70 46 29 15 22 22 DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 87 84 81 77 78 61 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 86 83 80 76 77 60 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 108 105 96 90 86 83 80 76 77 60 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS