* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 110 109 107 109 104 102 97 102 98 78 57 38 24 20 21 V (KT) LAND 115 112 110 109 107 109 104 102 97 102 98 78 50 31 17 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 109 108 108 106 100 94 94 93 76 47 36 32 33 35 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 13 16 14 8 7 7 28 43 44 33 27 37 39 43 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -2 -4 2 -2 2 3 12 4 0 3 -1 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 233 229 225 216 226 262 271 236 200 189 168 186 193 192 187 204 183 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.2 27.1 27.1 27.5 23.5 17.1 15.7 11.2 11.6 6.7 5.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 146 151 153 149 139 126 128 134 97 73 70 67 67 63 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 134 139 139 132 121 110 113 117 86 68 65 65 65 62 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -49.9 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -48.8 -48.6 -48.5 -49.5 -50.8 -52.2 -51.1 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 44 46 45 52 57 56 52 60 62 63 69 74 71 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 38 39 39 43 40 41 41 53 55 47 37 29 23 24 29 850 MB ENV VOR 75 78 83 67 60 57 93 150 210 219 218 192 241 242 231 253 206 200 MB DIV 64 51 48 34 -2 9 34 68 62 87 135 99 104 70 88 86 59 700-850 TADV 13 12 16 19 18 -2 0 3 -14 57 41 -9 -11 6 2 46 3 LAND (KM) 1101 1059 1031 1030 1049 1099 1194 1311 1113 740 363 25 32 52 11 64 174 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.6 23.4 24.4 25.4 27.2 28.7 30.6 33.6 37.4 41.4 44.6 46.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.8 56.6 57.4 58.2 59.0 60.9 62.3 63.0 62.5 62.0 62.1 62.5 63.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 12 17 20 18 14 11 15 15 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 25 24 29 48 35 17 6 9 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -14. -26. -35. -44. -52. -61. -68. -76. -81. -85. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -5. -0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. -0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 3. 4. 18. 21. 9. -5. -16. -23. -21. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -6. -11. -13. -18. -13. -17. -37. -58. -77. -91. -95. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 21.7 55.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 884.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.01 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 29( 51) 27( 64) 28( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 76 86( 97) 95(100) 67(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 110 109 107 109 104 102 97 102 98 78 50 31 17 25 26 18HR AGO 115 114 112 111 109 111 106 104 99 104 100 80 52 33 19 27 28 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 108 110 105 103 98 103 99 79 51 32 18 26 27 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 105 100 98 93 98 94 74 46 27 DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 98 93 91 86 91 87 67 39 20 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 94 89 87 82 87 83 63 35 16 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 112 110 101 95 91 86 84 79 84 80 60 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS