* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 112 111 109 109 107 105 101 99 102 93 71 52 38 29 23 V (KT) LAND 115 113 112 111 109 109 107 105 101 99 102 93 57 41 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 113 112 110 108 103 98 95 95 90 62 37 33 32 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 14 16 5 11 3 20 40 55 41 29 35 33 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 -6 1 0 -1 2 11 7 -1 0 0 1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 237 231 218 210 217 256 274 242 223 184 190 170 194 193 192 194 194 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.3 27.1 27.0 28.0 20.1 17.3 12.4 10.6 8.0 8.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 152 152 153 151 143 141 127 127 140 82 74 68 66 61 59 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 140 139 140 136 126 122 111 112 121 74 69 66 64 60 58 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -49.3 -48.7 -48.7 -49.1 -50.3 -51.4 -51.5 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 46 46 44 44 45 48 59 59 51 48 54 63 69 79 74 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 45 53 52 42 33 27 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 75 69 71 73 61 51 52 122 166 219 210 181 196 214 180 224 240 200 MB DIV 48 47 51 36 14 24 8 49 51 80 132 67 93 64 104 76 56 700-850 TADV 13 15 13 14 16 5 3 0 8 -10 62 -2 -3 -1 12 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1155 1102 1062 1054 1060 1067 1146 1270 1200 979 605 266 -39 78 3 -20 -26 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.7 24.6 26.4 28.1 29.7 31.8 34.9 38.7 42.3 45.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.1 55.9 56.7 57.3 58.0 60.1 61.9 63.5 63.6 62.8 62.1 62.4 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 13 17 19 17 15 17 14 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 30 27 29 37 24 17 6 15 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -23. -33. -41. -47. -54. -62. -70. -76. -80. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -6. -1. 2. 1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 4. 10. 19. 18. 3. -10. -17. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -10. -14. -16. -13. -22. -44. -63. -77. -86. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 21.2 55.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 870.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 12.0% 13.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 28( 65) 28( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 46 36( 65) 62( 87) 69( 96) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 113 112 111 109 109 107 105 101 99 102 93 57 41 27 28 29 18HR AGO 115 114 113 112 110 110 108 106 102 100 103 94 58 42 28 29 30 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 108 108 106 104 100 98 101 92 56 40 26 27 28 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 103 101 99 95 93 96 87 51 35 21 22 23 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 96 94 92 88 86 89 80 44 28 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 113 104 98 95 95 93 91 87 85 88 79 43 27 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 113 112 103 97 93 91 89 85 83 86 77 41 25 DIS DIS DIS