* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 120 119 117 113 111 109 105 99 98 99 82 60 44 32 22 V (KT) LAND 120 122 120 119 117 113 111 109 105 99 98 99 82 53 45 33 27 V (KT) LGEM 120 124 123 121 119 113 107 101 96 95 96 88 57 35 36 31 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 13 11 6 8 8 3 17 39 50 37 31 29 31 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 0 0 1 -5 -1 3 12 11 3 9 4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 231 231 228 215 202 228 273 274 244 200 189 183 177 193 201 186 200 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.0 26.3 18.0 17.0 15.8 13.6 7.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 145 152 152 153 146 135 138 135 127 120 76 71 69 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 131 134 139 139 138 131 117 118 118 111 104 70 65 65 67 67 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -49.8 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -49.1 -48.4 -48.4 -49.6 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 45 45 44 46 52 59 57 47 47 55 58 64 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 37 41 41 42 41 42 42 41 48 56 49 37 29 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 97 78 72 78 82 65 58 103 145 190 202 216 177 189 240 231 198 200 MB DIV 60 42 42 63 53 0 20 26 71 62 77 121 89 92 68 55 77 700-850 TADV 12 15 14 13 12 9 0 0 3 11 27 39 0 5 0 0 -11 LAND (KM) 1222 1175 1139 1104 1081 1093 1113 1214 1305 1183 896 541 175 -26 3 -46 201 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.8 25.6 27.3 29.0 30.4 32.6 35.8 39.4 43.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.0 55.6 56.4 57.1 58.6 60.8 62.7 63.2 63.0 62.4 62.0 61.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 9 9 14 17 19 16 8 10 19 23 HEAT CONTENT 49 40 37 30 27 38 32 14 20 16 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -15. -27. -37. -46. -53. -58. -66. -74. -80. -84. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -5. -0. 5. 7. 7. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 1. 2. 0. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 11. 21. 10. -5. -16. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -15. -21. -22. -21. -38. -60. -76. -88. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 20.6 54.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 905.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.0% 14.4% 9.7% 5.5% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 16.5% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.8% 5.9% 3.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 9.0% 9.0% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 33( 55) 32( 69) 30( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 48 36( 67) 58( 86) 71( 96) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 122 120 119 117 113 111 109 105 99 98 99 82 53 45 33 27 18HR AGO 120 119 117 116 114 110 108 106 102 96 95 96 79 50 42 30 24 12HR AGO 120 117 116 115 113 109 107 105 101 95 94 95 78 49 41 29 23 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 108 104 102 100 96 90 89 90 73 44 36 24 18 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 97 95 93 89 83 82 83 66 37 29 17 DIS IN 6HR 120 122 113 107 104 103 101 99 95 89 88 89 72 43 35 23 17 IN 12HR 120 122 120 111 105 101 99 97 93 87 86 87 70 41 33 21 15