* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 115 114 113 111 109 111 109 106 103 95 96 93 79 62 49 35 V (KT) LAND 110 115 114 113 111 109 111 109 106 103 95 96 93 79 56 42 29 V (KT) LGEM 110 116 117 115 114 111 108 104 99 97 94 91 75 51 39 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 16 17 14 12 3 7 3 11 34 49 44 36 37 31 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 2 -2 2 0 -4 1 3 7 5 -1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 248 250 237 231 220 197 320 286 275 222 190 203 180 196 211 220 217 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.7 27.3 27.0 28.0 24.1 17.2 14.3 10.9 7.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 147 151 153 151 143 147 128 126 140 101 75 69 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 134 135 139 140 137 125 126 110 110 122 89 70 66 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -49.1 -48.5 -48.3 -49.0 -50.1 -51.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 44 45 44 46 49 55 55 47 42 44 59 70 81 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 35 38 39 40 41 41 41 42 43 50 53 48 41 36 31 850 MB ENV VOR 107 101 74 75 83 72 61 60 130 154 198 190 174 164 166 146 150 200 MB DIV 69 51 33 39 80 2 25 7 47 21 61 80 101 75 89 69 80 700-850 TADV 14 11 12 15 10 17 4 0 0 8 -10 32 39 -11 -15 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1261 1202 1142 1091 1052 1030 1059 1132 1232 1173 1058 758 375 50 81 58 38 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.9 22.6 24.5 26.5 28.1 29.4 31.3 33.7 37.0 40.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.5 55.2 55.9 56.7 58.3 60.4 62.3 63.8 64.2 63.4 62.8 62.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 13 13 11 9 11 15 18 19 17 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 55 49 41 36 30 31 38 24 21 7 14 33 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -19. -26. -34. -40. -44. -49. -56. -62. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -5. 0. 5. 8. 8. 5. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 14. 16. 9. -1. -7. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -15. -14. -17. -31. -48. -61. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.7 53.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 813.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.09 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.3% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 28.4% 24.3% 17.8% 13.8% 6.3% 5.3% 3.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 29.6% 6.7% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.5% 17.0% 7.0% 4.9% 2.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 29( 65) 28( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 59 43( 77) 58( 90) 75( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 115 114 113 111 109 111 109 106 103 95 96 93 79 56 42 29 18HR AGO 110 109 108 107 105 103 105 103 100 97 89 90 87 73 50 36 23 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 103 101 103 101 98 95 87 88 85 71 48 34 21 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 96 98 96 93 90 82 83 80 66 43 29 16 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 89 91 89 86 83 75 76 73 59 36 22 DIS IN 6HR 110 115 106 100 97 94 96 94 91 88 80 81 78 64 41 27 DIS IN 12HR 110 115 114 105 99 95 97 95 92 89 81 82 79 65 42 28 15