* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 99 100 101 103 103 105 103 101 96 92 98 89 73 60 48 V (KT) LAND 95 97 99 100 101 103 103 105 103 101 96 92 98 89 73 53 35 V (KT) LGEM 95 97 99 101 102 104 105 106 103 98 93 91 89 71 49 40 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 12 15 15 14 11 5 8 3 10 33 42 40 32 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 1 0 -2 -3 1 -6 -1 2 6 13 -1 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 262 260 247 232 231 198 207 273 311 147 203 213 201 184 198 204 218 SST (C) 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.4 28.5 28.6 27.1 26.4 28.2 24.3 17.2 15.7 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 135 141 143 146 154 159 159 144 145 126 120 142 102 74 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 125 131 133 135 142 146 142 125 124 109 105 121 88 69 68 67 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 -49.4 -48.7 -48.0 -48.9 -49.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 45 46 45 44 46 44 51 57 59 45 45 45 60 73 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 36 35 37 40 40 41 41 41 41 42 52 52 45 41 38 850 MB ENV VOR 109 98 93 74 78 79 69 56 90 138 175 177 180 179 165 207 183 200 MB DIV 81 66 58 46 54 45 -6 18 20 51 31 35 123 93 55 45 59 700-850 TADV 14 12 11 13 12 12 14 0 0 0 12 25 37 14 -5 -7 1 LAND (KM) 1267 1280 1257 1186 1124 1063 1041 1075 1153 1288 1178 988 692 388 78 24 -8 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.1 21.8 23.5 25.3 27.0 28.4 29.9 31.9 34.5 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.3 53.9 54.8 55.6 57.1 59.0 61.0 62.6 63.7 63.8 63.3 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 12 15 16 16 15 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 27 36 42 40 38 28 33 41 21 20 8 6 47 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -30. -34. -40. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. 0. 3. 7. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 5. 17. 15. 6. 0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 8. 6. 1. -3. 3. -6. -22. -35. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.9 52.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 680.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.23 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 19.0% 14.6% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.6% 16.9% 11.0% 9.4% 5.1% 4.9% 3.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 21.5% 11.7% 5.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.6% 15.9% 10.4% 7.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 27.0% 27.0% 22.0% 9.0% 3.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 23( 50) 25( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 17( 24) 18( 38) 30( 57) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 97 99 100 101 103 103 105 103 101 96 92 98 89 73 53 35 18HR AGO 95 94 96 97 98 100 100 102 100 98 93 89 95 86 70 50 32 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 93 95 95 97 95 93 88 84 90 81 65 45 27 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 88 88 90 88 86 81 77 83 74 58 38 20 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 78 78 80 78 76 71 67 73 64 48 28 DIS IN 6HR 95 97 88 82 79 79 79 81 79 77 72 68 74 65 49 29 DIS IN 12HR 95 97 99 90 84 80 80 82 80 78 73 69 75 66 50 30 DIS