* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 88 92 93 97 101 103 103 103 102 96 90 89 83 68 52 V (KT) LAND 85 86 88 92 93 97 101 103 103 103 102 96 90 89 83 60 42 V (KT) LGEM 85 85 86 88 90 95 101 103 105 104 101 92 83 74 56 43 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 10 11 14 9 11 1 8 3 6 28 53 51 38 36 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 3 -3 0 0 -4 3 0 0 1 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 259 254 245 244 230 214 198 129 304 312 238 200 208 189 191 206 215 SST (C) 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.0 27.1 27.5 24.8 20.6 17.3 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 129 135 141 144 152 154 163 157 153 137 127 132 105 83 76 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 120 126 131 133 141 142 148 139 133 118 111 114 90 74 71 68 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -50.8 -50.0 -50.0 -49.7 -49.9 -49.1 -49.0 -48.9 -49.4 -49.5 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 47 48 45 45 44 45 45 46 52 59 57 47 39 42 61 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 34 35 35 39 41 41 41 42 43 42 43 49 52 47 41 850 MB ENV VOR 102 99 97 94 81 78 71 63 53 113 155 179 139 110 144 151 179 200 MB DIV 103 80 75 57 30 73 -5 16 1 48 32 30 10 61 93 51 51 700-850 TADV 9 12 9 9 12 9 13 6 -3 0 3 4 -8 -9 -3 -6 3 LAND (KM) 1256 1259 1272 1229 1154 1085 1024 1025 1091 1203 1192 1063 790 469 189 -20 -88 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.8 22.5 24.2 26.0 27.6 29.1 30.8 33.2 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.6 53.3 54.1 55.0 56.3 58.1 60.2 62.0 63.6 64.3 64.4 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 15 16 14 14 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 17 26 35 42 41 34 26 37 39 26 14 21 26 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -27. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 9. 15. 17. 9. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 11. 5. 4. -2. -17. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.0 52.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.34 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 18.7% 14.2% 12.1% 11.7% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.8% 15.6% 9.5% 11.3% 7.6% 7.0% 5.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 8.9% 7.0% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 13.8% 9.2% 8.2% 6.6% 6.3% 1.7% 0.4% DTOPS: 17.0% 34.0% 19.0% 11.0% 8.0% 26.0% 18.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 14( 31) 20( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 9( 12) 9( 20) 18( 34) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 88 92 93 97 101 103 103 103 102 96 90 89 83 60 42 18HR AGO 85 84 86 90 91 95 99 101 101 101 100 94 88 87 81 58 40 12HR AGO 85 82 81 85 86 90 94 96 96 96 95 89 83 82 76 53 35 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 76 80 84 86 86 86 85 79 73 72 66 43 25 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 70 74 76 76 76 75 69 63 62 56 33 15 IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 69 73 75 75 75 74 68 62 61 55 32 DIS IN 12HR 85 86 88 79 73 69 73 75 75 75 74 68 62 61 55 32 DIS