* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 82 85 87 91 94 97 99 98 98 92 83 75 70 61 V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 82 85 87 91 94 97 99 98 98 92 83 75 70 61 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 79 81 87 93 97 98 99 99 95 85 74 65 52 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 15 11 12 15 10 10 1 4 2 11 28 52 57 58 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 2 2 -1 2 -3 4 -2 0 -1 5 -1 1 -9 0 SHEAR DIR 264 258 262 258 252 228 205 183 111 336 255 220 222 222 219 207 219 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.6 28.6 28.7 27.4 26.9 27.4 24.1 18.8 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 129 135 141 145 154 160 163 145 147 129 124 131 101 79 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 120 126 131 134 142 146 146 127 127 111 107 113 89 73 69 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 -49.6 -49.9 -49.4 -49.6 -49.4 -50.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.4 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 6 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 48 45 45 44 44 44 44 44 49 56 63 58 52 43 48 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 32 32 34 37 40 41 41 42 41 42 41 40 41 47 48 850 MB ENV VOR 112 100 98 96 94 74 78 63 55 74 115 134 121 100 49 77 153 200 MB DIV 110 100 82 66 54 44 32 -5 10 6 16 41 45 43 50 100 50 700-850 TADV 5 8 12 13 10 12 8 16 -1 3 -1 4 10 12 8 -17 -12 LAND (KM) 1286 1268 1259 1264 1235 1130 1061 1032 1036 1123 1274 1128 979 741 427 229 120 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.7 23.3 25.2 26.7 28.2 29.8 31.7 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.2 51.9 52.6 53.4 54.1 55.5 57.0 59.0 61.2 62.9 63.9 64.5 64.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 10 12 13 11 10 10 11 13 16 17 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 26 36 42 38 28 33 45 24 21 11 13 28 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 1. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 6. 5. 1. 3. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 18. 18. 12. 3. -5. -10. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.4 51.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 546.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.37 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 17.4% 13.2% 11.2% 11.1% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 13.1% 7.4% 7.8% 5.0% 5.2% 3.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 6.1% 3.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 11.3% 7.5% 6.5% 5.4% 5.5% 1.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 10.0% 19.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 10( 22) 10( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 80 82 85 87 91 94 97 99 98 98 92 83 75 70 61 18HR AGO 80 79 79 81 84 86 90 93 96 98 97 97 91 82 74 69 60 12HR AGO 80 77 76 78 81 83 87 90 93 95 94 94 88 79 71 66 57 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 73 75 79 82 85 87 86 86 80 71 63 58 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT