* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 86 86 87 88 90 93 97 97 97 97 93 87 78 64 55 V (KT) LAND 85 87 86 86 87 88 90 93 97 97 97 97 93 87 78 64 49 V (KT) LGEM 85 86 85 85 85 89 93 96 98 99 97 95 88 78 65 46 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 17 18 13 14 14 16 2 5 1 6 20 50 68 59 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 -3 2 1 -2 3 1 2 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 268 256 263 264 251 229 200 185 178 279 310 268 253 274 271 268 251 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.9 27.5 28.0 28.3 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.0 29.1 27.8 27.2 27.1 24.5 18.4 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 123 130 137 141 154 154 163 152 153 134 127 128 104 76 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 114 115 122 127 129 142 141 147 135 133 114 110 112 90 70 68 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.1 -51.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -50.3 -49.9 -51.2 -51.7 -52.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 7 5 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 49 47 44 43 42 41 42 44 45 52 58 54 47 46 48 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 31 31 32 34 37 38 40 40 39 41 41 41 42 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 100 101 89 91 83 66 72 60 50 48 87 101 87 33 -128 -119 -64 200 MB DIV 66 76 73 80 45 36 73 -14 15 -10 35 -5 12 2 32 31 32 700-850 TADV 8 4 12 16 12 13 13 14 2 0 -3 2 7 19 27 20 21 LAND (KM) 1326 1323 1315 1310 1306 1190 1099 1053 1064 1118 1232 1150 1081 807 435 195 -14 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.1 21.4 23.0 24.6 26.3 27.9 29.4 31.1 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.1 51.8 52.6 53.4 54.8 56.4 58.1 60.0 62.1 63.8 64.6 64.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 10 9 13 17 17 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 14 26 39 39 32 27 37 32 25 14 24 16 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -12. -13. -15. -19. -22. -25. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 5. 8. 10. 10. 7. 2. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 12. 12. 12. 8. 2. -7. -21. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.1 50.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 574.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.34 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 17.1% 13.2% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.2% 13.7% 9.9% 9.8% 3.8% 4.6% 2.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 12.7% 2.7% 5.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.5% 11.2% 9.5% 7.6% 1.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 16.0% 23.0% 12.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 10.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 10( 27) 11( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 10( 12) 7( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 87 86 86 87 88 90 93 97 97 97 97 93 87 78 64 49 18HR AGO 85 84 83 83 84 85 87 90 94 94 94 94 90 84 75 61 46 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 82 83 85 88 92 92 92 92 88 82 73 59 44 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 76 77 79 82 86 86 86 86 82 76 67 53 38 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 67 69 72 76 76 76 76 72 66 57 43 28 IN 6HR 85 87 78 72 69 68 70 73 77 77 77 77 73 67 58 44 29 IN 12HR 85 87 86 77 71 67 69 72 76 76 76 76 72 66 57 43 28