* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 86 85 86 86 88 94 97 96 95 96 93 85 78 69 58 V (KT) LAND 80 84 86 85 86 86 88 94 97 96 95 96 93 85 78 69 51 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 85 85 84 86 89 95 97 96 96 96 90 82 70 53 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 9 14 15 14 16 10 13 5 4 3 13 41 59 62 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 5 2 -1 0 1 -2 1 -4 0 0 1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 277 282 246 258 259 243 209 182 175 200 277 273 248 273 283 268 241 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.8 27.3 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.5 28.5 28.4 27.2 26.6 26.8 20.2 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 127 122 122 128 140 146 154 160 161 144 143 128 122 125 81 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 121 114 113 119 130 134 141 147 144 126 123 111 107 108 74 68 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -49.5 -50.5 -51.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 49 47 46 44 43 41 42 42 48 55 57 49 46 53 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 29 29 31 31 35 39 41 40 39 40 40 39 40 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR 88 93 98 83 81 66 64 63 52 51 83 97 100 52 -81 -145 -56 200 MB DIV 88 80 80 67 63 59 33 41 0 9 -5 9 -13 -13 15 53 62 700-850 TADV 9 5 4 11 13 11 11 9 15 1 -1 -1 3 6 37 33 10 LAND (KM) 1264 1315 1331 1321 1320 1271 1145 1075 1032 1060 1134 1257 1139 889 543 259 -14 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.5 22.1 23.4 25.2 26.9 28.3 30.1 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.3 50.1 50.9 51.5 52.2 53.8 55.5 56.9 59.0 61.1 62.9 64.0 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 10 11 11 11 13 11 10 10 13 17 18 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 12 9 11 20 42 39 29 33 43 22 18 12 9 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -16. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 8. 3. -3. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. -0. 3. 9. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. 8. 14. 17. 16. 15. 16. 13. 5. -2. -11. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.1 49.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 497.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.42 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 20.9% 15.7% 13.0% 11.9% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.7% 22.9% 13.8% 13.5% 6.1% 13.1% 5.7% 2.4% Bayesian: 28.2% 22.4% 12.0% 6.1% 1.4% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 18.4% 22.1% 13.8% 10.9% 6.5% 9.4% 2.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 24.0% 28.0% 18.0% 8.0% 5.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 10( 25) 10( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 1( 7) 3( 10) 9( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 86 85 86 86 88 94 97 96 95 96 93 85 78 69 51 18HR AGO 80 79 81 80 81 81 83 89 92 91 90 91 88 80 73 64 46 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 76 76 78 84 87 86 85 86 83 75 68 59 41 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 71 73 79 82 81 80 81 78 70 63 54 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 64 66 72 75 74 73 74 71 63 56 47 29 IN 12HR 80 84 86 77 71 67 69 75 78 77 76 77 74 66 59 50 32