* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 91 93 92 90 86 88 89 87 89 84 83 83 79 74 66 V (KT) LAND 80 87 91 93 92 90 86 88 89 87 89 84 83 83 79 74 66 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 91 92 92 87 85 88 90 93 95 93 90 90 85 76 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 7 11 16 17 16 17 8 5 3 8 18 46 56 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 6 7 0 2 -2 0 -4 1 -4 -2 3 0 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 257 292 257 234 236 252 235 223 205 193 265 300 253 237 236 234 210 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.1 28.0 28.2 29.0 29.3 28.8 27.8 27.2 27.9 27.9 26.3 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 134 130 125 137 139 152 158 149 133 127 138 139 119 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 127 127 122 116 126 127 139 145 133 114 110 123 122 102 70 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -51.3 -50.3 -50.1 -49.6 -49.9 -49.8 -50.9 -51.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 50 48 46 46 41 42 42 43 48 53 61 57 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 28 27 29 29 33 36 36 39 38 39 40 41 42 45 850 MB ENV VOR 68 81 78 86 80 59 51 48 46 33 26 69 86 91 52 1 50 200 MB DIV 93 79 84 93 67 35 35 57 1 15 0 24 -2 58 28 89 122 700-850 TADV 6 6 4 4 7 11 10 13 14 5 0 0 2 8 28 22 -4 LAND (KM) 1227 1254 1285 1343 1330 1314 1258 1152 1092 1071 1113 1215 1350 1199 807 468 148 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.5 20.9 22.3 23.7 25.5 27.4 28.9 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.2 49.8 50.5 51.2 52.7 54.0 55.5 56.9 58.8 61.0 62.3 62.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 11 8 10 18 20 18 15 HEAT CONTENT 29 24 20 19 17 26 42 37 27 31 35 13 10 19 20 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 8. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. 2. 5. 4. 8. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 12. 10. 6. 8. 9. 7. 9. 4. 3. 3. -1. -6. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.4 48.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 17.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.17 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.0% 53.4% 41.7% 34.2% 22.6% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.9% 33.9% 23.1% 20.8% 7.2% 15.1% 8.3% 3.1% Bayesian: 66.7% 46.3% 37.7% 29.3% 11.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 44.5% 44.6% 34.1% 28.1% 13.7% 13.8% 2.8% 1.0% DTOPS: 37.0% 45.0% 27.0% 23.0% 12.0% 21.0% 14.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 12( 18) 13( 29) 12( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 30( 45) 7( 49) 14( 56) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 87 91 93 92 90 86 88 89 87 89 84 83 83 79 74 66 18HR AGO 80 79 83 85 84 82 78 80 81 79 81 76 75 75 71 66 58 12HR AGO 80 77 76 78 77 75 71 73 74 72 74 69 68 68 64 59 51 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 67 63 65 66 64 66 61 60 60 56 51 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 87 78 72 69 66 62 64 65 63 65 60 59 59 55 50 42 IN 12HR 80 87 91 82 76 72 68 70 71 69 71 66 65 65 61 56 48