* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 80 83 84 84 81 84 86 86 90 86 86 85 80 74 66 V (KT) LAND 70 76 80 83 84 84 81 84 86 86 90 86 86 85 80 74 66 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 79 81 81 81 79 81 84 86 89 91 91 87 85 78 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 5 7 17 15 18 13 13 4 6 7 10 26 52 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 3 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -3 1 9 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 234 257 291 251 234 258 239 235 205 199 223 305 302 261 238 242 242 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.9 29.0 29.3 28.8 27.2 27.5 27.6 26.7 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 134 126 130 137 150 152 157 148 127 131 134 125 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 127 126 118 119 125 136 137 139 131 111 115 119 112 81 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.4 -50.8 -50.3 -49.8 -49.7 -50.2 -50.3 -51.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.4 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 7 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 55 50 46 47 43 41 42 43 48 50 58 61 55 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 29 29 28 29 28 33 34 36 39 37 39 40 40 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 83 82 86 78 61 51 51 37 37 33 74 93 72 20 -2 200 MB DIV 143 93 80 83 93 35 45 42 51 -3 5 11 5 26 40 62 100 700-850 TADV -1 6 6 3 4 13 10 7 12 14 -3 0 0 5 12 21 12 LAND (KM) 1184 1220 1254 1296 1343 1306 1307 1193 1127 1084 1071 1133 1291 1361 1117 788 299 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.8 20.2 21.5 23.2 24.6 25.9 27.4 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.0 48.6 49.3 49.9 50.5 52.1 53.4 54.8 56.2 57.7 59.3 60.6 61.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 18 23 25 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 23 20 19 21 36 39 31 26 33 33 8 18 11 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 7. 7. 8. 6. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. 11. 14. 16. 17. 20. 16. 16. 15. 10. 4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.7 48.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 383.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.27 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.5% 43.4% 32.5% 23.2% 15.6% 20.4% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.9% 21.8% 12.4% 9.5% 3.0% 8.8% 8.0% 2.9% Bayesian: 45.7% 41.1% 35.7% 23.1% 8.6% 11.1% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 26.0% 35.4% 26.9% 18.6% 9.0% 13.4% 7.9% 1.0% DTOPS: 30.0% 31.0% 18.0% 11.0% 4.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 9( 19) 9( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 5( 11) 3( 13) 1( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 76 80 83 84 84 81 84 86 86 90 86 86 85 80 74 66 18HR AGO 70 69 73 76 77 77 74 77 79 79 83 79 79 78 73 67 59 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 70 70 67 70 72 72 76 72 72 71 66 60 52 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 61 58 61 63 63 67 63 63 62 57 51 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT