* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 62 62 63 66 73 74 79 80 82 80 80 79 70 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 62 62 63 66 73 74 79 80 82 80 80 79 70 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 59 60 61 64 68 72 76 80 85 88 86 85 85 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 6 6 13 11 15 12 13 11 11 3 8 13 37 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 7 6 6 3 0 0 0 -3 -5 -2 -1 -5 4 10 5 SHEAR DIR 239 177 214 290 297 260 253 231 199 208 234 248 260 243 232 227 219 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.4 27.3 28.1 28.3 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.7 26.6 27.5 27.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 135 135 129 127 138 140 151 153 153 147 120 133 133 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 128 127 127 121 118 126 127 135 137 137 129 105 118 121 98 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.5 -50.6 -49.7 -50.1 -49.7 -49.6 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 3 0 700-500 MB RH 60 57 53 51 51 46 42 42 40 40 37 38 37 49 56 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 27 27 26 25 25 26 27 31 31 34 34 35 34 35 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 73 78 72 79 78 72 54 48 47 46 27 10 29 108 141 122 36 200 MB DIV 116 109 81 69 51 23 22 9 42 6 21 5 19 -4 70 68 100 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 1 2 9 15 10 8 10 5 1 0 3 11 42 28 LAND (KM) 1165 1188 1213 1247 1287 1280 1287 1208 1106 1052 1060 1100 1177 1353 1320 968 500 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 18.1 19.6 20.9 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.3 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.4 49.1 49.7 50.3 51.8 53.2 54.5 55.9 57.1 58.1 59.4 60.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 17 24 28 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 25 21 20 21 32 41 34 28 27 31 29 3 14 12 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 7. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -2. -4. 0. -0. 1. -1. -1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 11. 18. 19. 24. 25. 27. 25. 25. 24. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.3 47.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 35.0% 22.5% 13.3% 12.7% 25.1% 16.3% 15.9% Logistic: 9.7% 18.2% 11.0% 12.3% 4.6% 11.4% 6.5% 2.8% Bayesian: 10.5% 15.5% 13.4% 2.7% 1.6% 8.4% 4.4% 0.1% Consensus: 9.4% 22.9% 15.6% 9.4% 6.3% 15.0% 9.1% 6.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 60 62 62 62 63 66 73 74 79 80 82 80 80 79 70 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 58 58 59 62 69 70 75 76 78 76 76 75 66 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 53 53 54 57 64 65 70 71 73 71 71 70 61 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 46 49 56 57 62 63 65 63 63 62 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT