* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 68 70 73 72 75 79 82 84 85 85 86 85 82 70 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 68 70 73 72 75 79 82 84 85 85 86 85 82 70 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 66 68 71 72 74 78 81 84 89 93 92 87 84 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 4 7 8 17 13 14 13 11 7 9 9 15 44 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 10 9 9 6 5 2 0 1 -3 -5 -3 -1 -7 0 6 -11 SHEAR DIR 2 17 149 230 294 257 264 247 227 185 210 256 249 249 238 217 225 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.2 27.8 28.1 28.9 29.0 29.3 28.8 27.7 27.1 27.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 135 135 134 126 134 137 150 151 157 148 133 127 137 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 131 128 128 127 118 123 125 135 136 140 131 115 113 125 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 7 3 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 55 51 49 49 42 41 39 41 38 37 38 49 61 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 26 25 25 25 27 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 74 66 78 82 67 61 50 50 33 33 32 91 101 84 8 200 MB DIV 136 125 86 54 20 19 23 25 18 48 -5 21 25 0 39 46 38 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 2 5 19 9 8 13 11 0 2 1 12 9 -22 LAND (KM) 1175 1183 1201 1231 1262 1304 1282 1269 1153 1080 1057 1074 1133 1265 1409 1063 622 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.4 18.9 20.4 21.5 22.8 24.2 25.7 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.4 48.3 48.9 49.6 51.0 52.5 53.8 55.2 56.5 57.7 59.0 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 15 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 30 27 21 19 25 40 38 30 26 32 32 13 10 11 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 13. 15. 18. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. 30. 27. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.8 46.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 46.6% 32.5% 17.5% 14.5% 36.5% 31.9% 18.5% Logistic: 12.2% 17.7% 11.2% 8.1% 2.3% 6.4% 5.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 22.7% 20.5% 28.0% 8.5% 5.7% 22.8% 4.9% 0.1% Consensus: 15.1% 28.3% 23.9% 11.4% 7.5% 21.9% 14.2% 6.7% DTOPS: 13.0% 13.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 66 68 70 73 72 75 79 82 84 85 85 86 85 82 70 18HR AGO 55 54 60 62 64 67 66 69 73 76 78 79 79 80 79 76 64 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 58 57 60 64 67 69 70 70 71 70 67 55 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 50 49 52 56 59 61 62 62 63 62 59 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT