* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 68 71 74 77 80 85 89 90 89 92 93 93 90 82 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 68 71 74 77 80 85 89 90 89 92 93 93 90 82 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 61 66 69 75 79 83 88 90 90 90 93 95 94 90 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 2 2 3 8 14 10 11 12 15 7 5 6 15 25 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 8 7 8 7 4 0 1 0 -2 -5 -2 -5 -7 5 7 SHEAR DIR 30 44 74 75 272 303 269 263 238 218 211 177 188 210 234 238 249 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.0 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 132 135 142 148 150 157 151 151 149 150 146 136 139 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 128 126 129 135 140 141 146 137 136 135 134 125 116 121 116 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -51.2 -50.0 -50.2 -49.6 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.2 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 3 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 54 52 52 48 45 44 41 41 42 41 47 57 53 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 29 30 29 27 28 29 31 34 35 35 38 38 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 66 77 73 69 66 77 68 61 64 64 51 40 46 90 111 115 130 200 MB DIV 111 146 130 95 48 29 22 30 23 39 0 15 17 45 21 58 1 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -3 0 0 4 9 10 10 11 13 8 3 3 8 19 21 LAND (KM) 1214 1192 1184 1193 1204 1274 1263 1240 1144 1048 1017 993 1021 1132 1267 1370 1111 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.7 18.1 19.2 20.8 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.5 46.6 47.6 48.4 49.1 50.7 52.0 53.4 55.1 56.5 57.5 59.0 61.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 8 9 11 11 7 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 27 27 27 26 25 37 48 49 36 26 30 37 29 16 23 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -0. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 35. 39. 40. 39. 42. 43. 43. 40. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.4 45.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 50.4% 35.1% 17.9% 14.4% 36.2% 37.9% 29.4% Logistic: 15.3% 40.8% 31.2% 21.3% 6.4% 15.1% 8.2% 4.5% Bayesian: 10.0% 14.7% 18.0% 2.8% 1.6% 16.6% 21.2% 0.9% Consensus: 11.5% 35.3% 28.1% 14.0% 7.5% 22.7% 22.4% 11.6% DTOPS: 16.0% 54.0% 20.0% 10.0% 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 11( 11) 6( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 62 68 71 74 77 80 85 89 90 89 92 93 93 90 82 18HR AGO 50 49 55 61 64 67 70 73 78 82 83 82 85 86 86 83 75 12HR AGO 50 47 46 52 55 58 61 64 69 73 74 73 76 77 77 74 66 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 46 49 52 57 61 62 61 64 65 65 62 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT