* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 61 68 76 82 86 88 94 97 97 94 95 94 92 90 84 V (KT) LAND 45 52 61 68 76 82 86 88 94 97 97 94 95 94 92 90 84 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 58 64 70 78 85 91 95 98 97 95 95 94 93 89 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 1 2 11 8 10 12 12 9 11 11 15 15 17 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 6 4 4 3 5 0 2 0 0 -4 -4 -3 0 13 SHEAR DIR 29 35 40 83 45 321 303 283 266 249 254 278 304 316 294 272 238 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 132 134 139 147 150 151 153 153 150 148 147 148 132 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 129 127 128 133 140 141 140 139 138 134 131 129 129 117 119 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -50.5 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 58 56 53 52 51 49 47 49 50 51 52 54 63 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 31 31 32 30 30 30 33 36 37 37 40 41 41 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 66 70 78 68 66 74 72 63 60 51 55 47 45 50 95 94 91 200 MB DIV 108 137 154 144 103 31 47 51 41 15 39 -17 13 25 25 34 62 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -5 0 -1 0 2 10 9 8 14 12 -3 4 10 15 34 LAND (KM) 1246 1211 1178 1172 1176 1208 1250 1221 1231 1134 1075 1033 1016 1055 1143 1320 1289 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.8 17.1 18.4 19.9 21.2 22.5 23.7 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.6 46.7 47.5 48.4 49.9 51.4 52.8 54.1 55.3 56.4 57.6 59.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 7 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 22 28 27 26 24 29 48 49 47 35 25 30 31 31 13 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 7. 10. 12. 10. 13. 13. 12. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 23. 31. 37. 41. 43. 49. 52. 52. 49. 50. 49. 47. 45. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 44.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.98 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 50.5% 34.7% 13.8% 12.8% 31.4% 37.8% 47.4% Logistic: 15.6% 48.3% 31.9% 15.9% 5.1% 15.3% 15.0% 10.0% Bayesian: 11.6% 19.6% 21.5% 4.5% 2.8% 17.6% 29.7% 4.2% Consensus: 11.9% 39.5% 29.4% 11.4% 6.9% 21.4% 27.5% 20.5% DTOPS: 7.0% 70.0% 27.0% 10.0% 1.0% 14.0% 8.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 2( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 52 61 68 76 82 86 88 94 97 97 94 95 94 92 90 84 18HR AGO 45 44 53 60 68 74 78 80 86 89 89 86 87 86 84 82 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 56 62 66 68 74 77 77 74 75 74 72 70 64 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 43 49 53 55 61 64 64 61 62 61 59 57 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT