* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 66 72 79 84 84 86 88 91 92 91 91 88 87 87 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 66 72 79 84 84 86 88 91 92 91 91 88 87 87 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 64 69 77 81 83 86 88 89 88 87 86 86 86 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 8 6 3 4 15 15 14 12 10 7 14 21 17 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 4 7 8 5 2 4 2 1 0 0 -2 0 9 SHEAR DIR 8 30 7 26 53 251 283 262 270 264 244 220 277 316 334 340 257 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 133 133 132 135 140 146 150 149 148 155 147 144 143 137 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 130 128 127 128 132 138 140 138 135 141 130 122 123 120 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 6 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 58 58 55 53 51 51 53 51 50 52 54 53 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 28 30 32 30 31 29 30 33 36 38 38 40 40 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 64 64 70 77 70 55 70 51 46 39 40 40 27 30 44 81 101 200 MB DIV 71 97 122 121 118 47 21 23 42 20 73 -9 34 -10 24 9 77 700-850 TADV -8 -12 -9 -4 -2 0 0 7 8 4 8 9 1 0 7 3 3 LAND (KM) 1312 1257 1202 1178 1165 1184 1242 1272 1267 1257 1179 1118 1106 1143 1197 1311 1490 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.2 16.3 17.6 19.0 20.3 21.7 23.2 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.6 45.8 46.7 47.6 49.1 50.4 51.5 52.8 53.9 55.0 56.3 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 7 4 5 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 25 28 26 25 24 31 45 48 45 33 24 24 24 20 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 4. 5. 7. 12. 13. 12. 13. 12. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 27. 34. 39. 39. 41. 43. 46. 47. 46. 46. 43. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.9 43.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 47.4% 32.1% 13.1% 12.2% 29.7% 39.0% 47.1% Logistic: 13.8% 53.0% 37.4% 13.9% 5.5% 18.6% 11.6% 12.1% Bayesian: 6.7% 6.6% 8.3% 0.7% 0.3% 8.7% 29.0% 7.1% Consensus: 9.7% 35.7% 25.9% 9.2% 6.0% 19.0% 26.5% 22.1% DTOPS: 14.0% 68.0% 32.0% 15.0% 2.0% 25.0% 12.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 10( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 58 66 72 79 84 84 86 88 91 92 91 91 88 87 87 18HR AGO 45 44 51 59 65 72 77 77 79 81 84 85 84 84 81 80 80 12HR AGO 45 42 41 49 55 62 67 67 69 71 74 75 74 74 71 70 70 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 48 53 53 55 57 60 61 60 60 57 56 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT