* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 51 57 66 72 73 81 85 88 88 89 91 89 93 91 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 51 57 66 72 73 81 85 88 88 89 91 89 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 53 61 66 70 75 79 82 85 86 86 85 86 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 3 4 3 8 10 10 10 11 9 17 13 17 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -2 2 5 6 3 4 1 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 353 349 8 31 29 129 300 283 271 237 263 283 274 274 284 303 261 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 131 132 134 133 139 145 150 149 153 152 149 146 145 142 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 128 128 130 127 131 138 141 138 140 139 133 125 124 124 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 60 59 57 52 52 47 46 44 43 44 47 50 50 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 25 27 28 28 28 24 27 29 30 30 31 34 34 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 89 64 65 72 76 64 67 79 67 61 32 30 13 10 11 42 73 200 MB DIV 67 78 91 107 110 103 14 28 38 30 -3 18 3 2 0 20 38 700-850 TADV -6 -11 -13 -10 -5 -2 0 3 11 8 7 6 8 6 8 6 10 LAND (KM) 1392 1318 1252 1207 1166 1157 1184 1241 1237 1253 1177 1104 1068 1089 1128 1208 1331 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.8 18.3 19.6 20.9 22.3 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.5 44.8 45.8 46.9 48.6 50.0 51.3 52.5 53.7 54.8 56.0 57.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 10 8 4 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 15 23 28 25 24 28 45 49 47 39 25 25 25 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 9. 8. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 31. 37. 38. 46. 50. 53. 53. 54. 56. 54. 58. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.8 42.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 27.9% 15.7% 10.9% 10.1% 13.4% 34.4% 50.3% Logistic: 12.5% 44.5% 32.3% 9.1% 2.8% 10.8% 11.6% 10.1% Bayesian: 4.3% 9.2% 6.0% 0.5% 0.2% 6.0% 30.7% 8.4% Consensus: 7.8% 27.2% 18.0% 6.8% 4.4% 10.0% 25.6% 23.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 34.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 6.0% 4.0% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 45 51 57 66 72 73 81 85 88 88 89 91 89 93 91 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 52 61 67 68 76 80 83 83 84 86 84 88 86 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 52 58 59 67 71 74 74 75 77 75 79 77 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 40 46 47 55 59 62 62 63 65 63 67 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT