* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL202020 09/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 53 62 67 72 77 78 83 83 82 80 80 79 78 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 53 62 67 72 77 78 83 83 82 80 80 79 78 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 50 59 64 66 68 69 71 73 74 74 75 74 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 2 3 2 7 12 16 11 14 12 17 20 20 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 0 0 9 6 4 1 3 3 2 2 -2 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 23 341 306 279 337 51 211 285 257 260 251 248 269 289 302 298 305 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 135 142 147 149 146 142 143 144 141 142 143 143 140 141 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 133 141 145 143 139 134 133 135 130 129 126 124 121 123 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 60 61 61 57 54 54 50 48 45 47 50 50 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 24 27 30 28 28 29 28 32 33 34 34 37 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 92 74 52 53 53 60 44 61 53 42 44 30 23 3 2 9 47 200 MB DIV 88 79 79 82 89 112 73 26 22 52 20 28 -18 9 -10 11 1 700-850 TADV -12 -8 -7 -11 -13 0 1 3 7 10 9 11 6 5 3 6 7 LAND (KM) 1621 1535 1457 1393 1331 1259 1274 1321 1381 1375 1361 1272 1225 1213 1233 1285 1388 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.5 16.7 17.8 19.2 20.9 22.4 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.0 42.3 43.5 44.8 46.6 47.8 49.4 50.4 51.6 53.0 54.3 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 8 8 9 8 10 10 9 7 5 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 10 14 22 41 44 25 23 28 38 45 29 24 21 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 7. 5. 10. 10. 10. 10. 12. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 27. 32. 37. 42. 43. 48. 48. 47. 45. 45. 44. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 39.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TWENTY 09/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 19.9% 13.9% 9.3% 8.4% 12.6% 34.6% 53.0% Logistic: 4.8% 21.6% 12.2% 1.8% 0.4% 3.0% 5.0% 6.4% Bayesian: 2.7% 2.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 16.9% 3.5% Consensus: 4.1% 14.8% 9.3% 3.7% 2.9% 5.8% 18.8% 21.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 18.0% 12.0% 5.0% 2.0% 6.0% 13.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TWENTY 09/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TWENTY 09/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 47 53 62 67 72 77 78 83 83 82 80 80 79 78 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 49 58 63 68 73 74 79 79 78 76 76 75 74 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 51 56 61 66 67 72 72 71 69 69 68 67 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 40 45 50 55 56 61 61 60 58 58 57 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT