* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL202020 09/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 46 55 64 70 75 77 79 84 84 83 84 82 81 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 46 55 64 70 75 77 79 84 84 83 84 82 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 39 49 56 58 59 60 61 63 66 69 72 75 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 4 3 2 5 10 11 15 14 9 9 14 12 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 0 -1 -2 5 7 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -7 -8 SHEAR DIR 24 34 28 102 81 283 207 252 246 241 247 248 239 274 275 275 267 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 135 141 148 148 143 142 143 141 141 142 144 143 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 131 133 139 145 142 136 134 134 130 129 128 128 126 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 62 61 59 60 56 52 47 44 39 37 36 35 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 22 24 28 30 30 30 29 30 33 32 32 34 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 112 97 83 55 54 54 51 55 69 60 49 38 22 14 0 -14 49 200 MB DIV 117 103 94 82 87 81 77 22 34 46 31 12 -1 -11 11 -2 20 700-850 TADV -22 -21 -6 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 4 12 11 7 11 9 4 8 7 LAND (KM) 1718 1616 1524 1448 1381 1291 1254 1306 1368 1372 1399 1336 1252 1197 1194 1233 1343 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.3 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.6 20.1 21.6 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.6 41.0 42.2 43.4 45.5 47.2 48.4 49.8 51.1 52.2 53.4 54.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 11 14 28 44 36 23 25 31 36 38 25 21 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 10. 8. 7. 8. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 25. 34. 40. 45. 47. 49. 54. 54. 53. 54. 52. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 38.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TWENTY 09/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 18.9% 13.2% 8.9% 7.9% 11.9% 20.2% 49.5% Logistic: 4.5% 21.8% 11.6% 2.7% 0.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.5% Bayesian: 2.4% 2.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 11.6% 6.9% Consensus: 3.7% 14.4% 8.7% 3.9% 2.9% 6.0% 12.3% 20.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 6.0% 15.0% 49.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TWENTY 09/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TWENTY 09/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 46 55 64 70 75 77 79 84 84 83 84 82 81 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 43 52 61 67 72 74 76 81 81 80 81 79 78 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 36 45 54 60 65 67 69 74 74 73 74 72 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 35 44 50 55 57 59 64 64 63 64 62 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT