* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL202020 09/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 44 55 66 71 78 81 86 88 88 88 86 87 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 44 55 66 71 78 81 86 88 88 88 86 87 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 38 47 57 62 63 65 67 70 71 72 75 78 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 5 3 2 4 8 7 12 11 9 9 13 11 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 0 -1 2 6 6 4 2 1 3 1 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 32 39 63 16 98 310 233 215 261 245 242 253 225 246 279 303 324 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 132 135 146 148 145 142 144 142 139 142 143 145 146 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 131 131 132 143 143 138 135 135 132 127 129 127 128 129 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.1 -51.4 -50.4 -50.7 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 62 60 63 62 60 57 51 48 48 45 45 47 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 22 23 28 32 30 32 31 34 35 36 36 36 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 124 113 99 82 60 54 48 45 68 69 64 58 51 39 27 12 5 200 MB DIV 122 119 97 84 86 89 95 49 30 36 66 32 44 -7 26 -2 42 700-850 TADV -19 -23 -16 -5 -2 -6 -1 1 1 6 7 10 14 11 10 4 4 LAND (KM) 1743 1722 1633 1544 1463 1347 1301 1313 1350 1395 1404 1369 1274 1223 1190 1198 1225 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.9 15.8 16.9 18.3 19.8 21.3 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.0 38.3 39.5 40.8 42.0 44.3 46.2 47.6 49.2 50.6 51.8 53.0 54.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 11 11 10 19 38 45 25 23 28 35 42 26 23 24 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 8. 11. 10. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 25. 36. 41. 48. 51. 56. 58. 58. 58. 56. 57. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 37.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.61 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 17.3% 12.1% 7.9% 6.9% 11.2% 14.6% 51.4% Logistic: 3.2% 15.5% 7.5% 1.7% 0.5% 2.8% 3.9% 5.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 1.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.3% 4.8% Consensus: 2.8% 11.3% 7.0% 3.2% 2.5% 5.0% 8.6% 20.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% 54.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 39 44 55 66 71 78 81 86 88 88 88 86 87 84 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 41 52 63 68 75 78 83 85 85 85 83 84 81 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 45 56 61 68 71 76 78 78 78 76 77 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 36 47 52 59 62 67 69 69 69 67 68 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT