* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL202020 09/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 55 62 72 77 80 83 84 84 84 83 82 81 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 44 55 62 72 77 80 83 84 84 84 83 82 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 45 53 58 59 59 61 63 65 66 67 69 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 7 6 1 5 6 10 9 13 12 12 10 13 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 1 0 4 4 7 5 -1 4 1 3 4 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 23 34 43 68 42 230 243 207 239 244 238 243 258 260 271 295 312 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.9 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 133 132 131 136 147 146 143 142 142 137 136 138 142 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 132 131 128 134 142 139 135 134 132 124 123 126 127 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 67 62 64 63 60 57 54 51 50 50 47 48 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 25 25 28 30 32 32 32 34 34 36 37 37 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR 136 127 116 95 75 52 53 46 54 65 62 53 39 33 28 5 -1 200 MB DIV 105 131 116 94 80 89 86 92 65 51 63 41 37 30 0 16 -8 700-850 TADV -14 -23 -29 -14 -6 -5 -3 1 2 3 6 8 9 14 6 2 8 LAND (KM) 1728 1733 1738 1652 1572 1444 1366 1360 1408 1485 1501 1513 1462 1370 1272 1246 1280 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.7 18.1 19.5 20.8 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.9 36.9 38.0 39.2 40.4 42.6 44.9 46.3 47.5 48.9 50.3 51.4 52.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 8 9 10 9 7 8 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 11 10 11 22 40 35 22 23 23 28 30 26 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 25. 32. 42. 47. 50. 53. 54. 54. 54. 53. 53. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 35.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 17.2% 12.0% 7.8% 6.8% 11.1% 14.1% 49.2% Logistic: 3.1% 15.0% 6.8% 1.8% 0.6% 3.8% 5.1% 4.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 9.1% 5.3% Consensus: 2.7% 11.0% 6.6% 3.2% 2.5% 5.2% 9.5% 19.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 31.0% 43.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 44 55 62 72 77 80 83 84 84 84 83 82 81 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 52 59 69 74 77 80 81 81 81 80 79 78 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 45 52 62 67 70 73 74 74 74 73 72 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 35 42 52 57 60 63 64 64 64 63 62 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT