* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL202020 09/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 54 65 72 76 78 78 83 82 83 79 79 79 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 54 65 72 76 78 78 83 82 83 79 79 79 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 54 61 64 63 62 61 63 63 64 66 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 10 7 5 2 6 13 9 13 12 17 15 17 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 2 0 -3 4 9 5 4 2 3 0 1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 44 22 27 36 29 71 206 202 207 227 231 235 251 246 254 245 251 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 140 137 137 137 141 135 135 134 133 136 136 138 144 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 138 136 136 133 136 128 127 124 122 123 122 123 129 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 67 66 62 62 60 57 54 48 43 40 39 39 40 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 22 24 25 28 28 28 28 27 31 31 34 32 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 136 137 120 118 96 52 48 50 57 79 79 65 46 46 31 9 1 200 MB DIV 73 102 118 110 97 88 84 90 51 49 35 59 12 26 -6 31 16 700-850 TADV -4 -16 -22 -23 -18 -4 -6 -1 2 5 7 10 12 14 12 3 10 LAND (KM) 1742 1749 1761 1771 1700 1539 1435 1386 1426 1476 1539 1564 1555 1468 1366 1331 1391 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.3 16.6 17.8 19.2 20.7 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.1 35.9 36.7 37.7 38.8 41.3 43.5 45.4 46.9 48.4 49.6 50.6 51.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 13 13 11 11 23 29 18 17 17 25 25 27 25 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 11. 11. 12. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 35. 42. 46. 48. 48. 53. 52. 53. 49. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 35.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.60 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 19.5% 13.5% 9.0% 8.0% 11.6% 14.6% 47.8% Logistic: 3.0% 16.1% 8.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.2% 3.4% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 6.3% 4.8% Consensus: 2.8% 12.1% 7.4% 3.6% 2.8% 5.0% 8.1% 18.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 13.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 44 54 65 72 76 78 78 83 82 83 79 79 79 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 51 62 69 73 75 75 80 79 80 76 76 76 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 45 56 63 67 69 69 74 73 74 70 70 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 46 53 57 59 59 64 63 64 60 60 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT