* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL202020 09/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 52 63 75 81 82 85 86 85 86 84 86 83 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 45 52 63 75 81 82 85 86 85 86 84 86 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 39 42 48 56 66 72 72 71 71 71 69 69 71 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 9 9 12 8 3 3 6 5 9 17 16 15 14 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 5 3 -2 1 3 6 6 0 1 -2 -4 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 48 350 8 29 24 22 33 261 164 205 243 241 232 241 231 258 257 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 140 141 140 136 137 136 139 134 133 131 135 135 138 145 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 138 139 138 134 134 131 133 126 125 121 122 121 122 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 76 72 70 69 67 64 62 63 61 56 53 46 43 42 41 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 21 22 22 25 29 29 27 28 30 31 32 31 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 110 131 133 119 115 82 49 50 52 59 76 66 46 34 23 6 -14 200 MB DIV 45 80 106 114 109 78 97 78 102 101 75 44 26 20 14 -1 35 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -14 -23 -25 -5 -10 0 1 3 2 8 11 9 11 13 6 LAND (KM) 1745 1739 1737 1753 1777 1620 1489 1446 1429 1491 1592 1643 1630 1545 1470 1427 1418 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.9 15.9 17.3 18.9 20.6 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.2 34.9 35.6 36.6 37.5 39.9 42.2 44.0 45.6 47.0 48.3 49.5 50.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 10 11 11 11 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 13 13 12 11 13 23 21 15 14 21 22 26 37 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 8. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 13. 14. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 33. 45. 51. 52. 55. 56. 55. 56. 54. 56. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 34.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 20.4% 14.2% 9.5% 8.3% 11.7% 16.0% 51.8% Logistic: 4.1% 17.2% 9.4% 1.9% 0.5% 3.1% 4.9% 8.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 22.4% 21.4% Consensus: 3.7% 13.0% 8.3% 3.8% 2.9% 5.3% 14.4% 27.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 37.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 41 45 52 63 75 81 82 85 86 85 86 84 86 83 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 41 48 59 71 77 78 81 82 81 82 80 82 79 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 42 53 65 71 72 75 76 75 76 74 76 73 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 42 54 60 61 64 65 64 65 63 65 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT