* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 50 47 37 26 42 39 36 32 29 26 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 50 47 37 26 42 39 36 32 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 46 41 42 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 39 43 47 47 33 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 0 -4 7 16 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 222 213 212 222 234 247 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.1 21.6 20.9 19.8 18.9 16.2 13.4 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 91 88 85 83 78 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 85 83 80 79 75 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.7 -55.9 -55.6 -55.3 -54.1 -52.9 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.8 4.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 44 41 41 37 50 56 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 15 13 9 9 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -32 -35 -35 -32 62 172 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 72 48 49 36 22 31 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -57 -75 -37 -81 -89 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1639 1603 1613 1735 1896 1195 686 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.5 35.1 36.7 38.1 39.4 43.0 46.9 50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.5 41.8 39.0 35.5 32.0 23.8 15.9 9.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 28 29 31 33 35 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 26 CX,CY: 17/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -24. -28. -33. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -10. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -18. -29. -13. -16. -19. -23. -26. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.5 44.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 50 47 37 26 42 39 36 32 29 26 18HR AGO 55 54 53 50 47 37 26 42 39 36 32 29 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 48 45 35 24 40 37 34 30 27 24 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 32 21 37 34 31 27 24 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT