* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 50 47 42 35 46 43 41 37 34 30 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 50 47 42 35 46 43 41 37 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 49 47 42 42 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 31 36 36 40 40 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 232 226 226 223 229 238 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 22.7 22.1 21.4 21.5 19.4 17.2 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 94 92 89 90 84 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 87 85 83 84 79 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.7 -55.6 -55.5 -55.5 -56.5 -55.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.5 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 45 42 41 38 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 16 13 12 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -28 -33 -49 -36 -16 60 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 44 69 51 34 28 32 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -9 0 -23 -42 -27 -33 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1796 1738 1706 1727 1779 1829 1158 566 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.6 33.8 35.0 36.1 38.6 41.1 43.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 44.3 42.2 39.6 37.1 30.3 22.9 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 21 23 24 27 30 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 24 CX,CY: 17/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -20. -9. -12. -14. -18. -21. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.4 46.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 14.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 52 50 47 42 35 46 43 41 37 34 30 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 48 43 36 47 44 42 38 35 31 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 46 41 34 45 42 40 36 33 29 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 37 30 41 38 36 32 29 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT