* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 47 43 37 30 26 23 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 47 43 37 30 26 23 19 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 49 46 41 38 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 44 38 33 42 36 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -1 1 -5 -1 -3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 250 254 238 233 232 228 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 24.9 24.6 23.8 23.8 21.9 20.2 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 105 99 100 92 84 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 101 97 90 92 87 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -55.2 -55.8 -57.4 -58.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 39 42 44 48 46 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 18 17 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 2 -18 -17 -21 -38 -40 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 30 37 50 68 23 21 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 15 9 6 2 -4 -30 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1774 2008 1951 1886 1835 1840 2026 1670 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.5 29.7 30.7 31.7 34.1 37.0 38.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.4 49.4 47.5 45.8 44.2 39.0 32.2 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 19 17 21 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 15 CX,CY: 13/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -18. -25. -29. -32. -36. -39. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.3 51.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 51 49 47 43 37 30 26 23 19 16 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 52 50 48 44 38 31 27 24 20 17 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 43 37 30 26 23 19 16 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 39 33 26 22 19 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT