* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 41 38 35 30 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 41 38 35 30 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 48 45 41 37 32 28 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 44 42 46 40 42 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 12 4 -1 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 250 246 253 250 239 245 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.3 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 113 109 107 104 101 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 104 102 97 95 93 91 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -55.0 -55.4 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 32 34 35 36 42 38 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 18 16 17 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 29 4 6 0 -8 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 55 63 23 32 56 21 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 14 11 12 11 9 0 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1431 1561 1691 1819 1947 1997 1967 1974 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.5 28.1 29.3 30.3 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.4 53.3 52.1 51.0 49.9 47.4 44.6 41.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 14 CX,CY: 13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -22. -28. -34. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -20. -27. -31. -34. -39. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.8 54.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/22/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 45 41 38 35 30 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 46 42 39 36 31 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 42 39 36 31 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 34 29 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT