* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 40 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 40 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 48 44 39 35 28 24 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 44 45 48 49 39 34 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 4 3 2 0 1 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 255 252 252 257 243 242 260 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.3 23.3 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 115 110 105 103 97 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 108 104 99 95 94 89 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -55.0 -56.0 -57.1 -58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 33 34 35 35 41 52 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 15 13 11 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 30 38 24 0 -19 -22 -52 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 50 35 25 11 34 33 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 12 8 11 16 4 8 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1244 1392 1539 1691 1842 2039 1995 1979 2024 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.6 27.3 28.8 30.0 31.8 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.9 54.5 53.2 51.9 50.6 48.0 44.7 40.5 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 18 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -23. -28. -33. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -18. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -15. -21. -28. -36. -41. -46. -51. -54. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.8 55.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/22/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 43 40 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 45 42 37 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 38 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 35 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT