* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 45 42 36 29 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 45 42 36 29 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 49 46 42 38 30 25 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 41 43 43 48 44 35 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 6 5 1 1 -4 -10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 238 244 242 244 259 265 255 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 26.7 26.2 25.3 25.1 23.7 21.5 19.9 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 124 120 112 111 101 90 84 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 116 114 107 105 96 85 79 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -54.5 -55.6 -56.8 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 32 30 30 27 30 37 46 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 19 17 15 12 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 49 51 35 20 -44 -79 -66 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 69 52 54 5 -7 17 31 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 13 10 -5 -3 17 13 10 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 992 1195 1397 1666 1934 1774 1713 1863 1611 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.3 26.4 27.8 29.1 31.8 34.9 37.8 39.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.6 57.0 55.3 53.0 50.8 45.7 40.0 33.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 22 24 25 27 28 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 14 CX,CY: 10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -22. -29. -35. -40. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -13. -18. -19. -21. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -21. -23. -30. -35. -40. -44. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.3 58.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 386.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/22/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 45 42 36 29 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 45 42 36 29 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 40 34 27 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 31 24 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT