* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 51 49 44 40 40 39 37 35 32 30 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 51 49 44 40 40 39 37 35 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 49 46 39 32 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 34 42 47 49 43 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 9 8 8 3 -2 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 215 221 234 243 232 246 252 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.5 26.4 25.7 24.2 22.2 20.9 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 122 115 104 94 89 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 125 116 110 99 89 84 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -53.7 -53.5 -54.2 -55.9 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 37 33 29 30 27 21 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 20 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 49 57 51 47 35 -23 -60 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 126 132 106 85 42 10 -2 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 18 14 14 0 -67 -27 -4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 738 884 1030 1268 1506 1841 1634 1668 1869 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 24.0 24.8 26.1 27.4 30.3 33.4 36.7 39.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 59.7 58.6 56.7 54.8 50.1 44.9 38.1 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 17 21 23 26 30 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -14. -20. -26. -31. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -10. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.1 60.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 51 49 44 40 40 39 37 35 32 30 18HR AGO 50 49 50 49 47 42 38 38 37 35 33 30 28 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 43 38 34 34 33 31 29 26 24 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 33 29 29 28 26 24 21 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT