* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 53 49 45 44 40 37 34 31 29 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 53 49 45 44 40 37 34 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 54 52 45 38 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 23 36 44 48 53 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 8 9 8 0 0 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 230 221 222 234 237 243 254 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.5 26.0 25.2 23.0 21.4 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 134 122 118 112 98 89 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 125 115 111 107 92 83 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -53.6 -54.0 -55.7 -57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 40 35 31 29 29 23 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 19 19 19 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 22 41 48 40 40 -1 -74 -101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 118 119 113 79 26 -17 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 12 22 21 14 -36 -8 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 670 813 956 1175 1394 1898 1632 1553 1745 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.6 24.5 25.8 27.0 29.5 33.0 36.2 38.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.3 60.3 59.3 57.6 55.9 51.6 46.2 40.8 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 16 20 21 26 28 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 22 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 3. -1. -5. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.7 61.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.8% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 23.0% 13.0% 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 56 53 49 45 44 40 37 34 31 29 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 50 46 42 41 37 34 31 28 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 45 41 37 36 32 29 26 23 21 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 33 29 28 24 21 18 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT