* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 56 52 47 41 39 37 34 32 30 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 56 52 47 41 39 37 34 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 56 51 43 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 19 19 30 46 53 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 6 12 1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 248 242 234 225 242 241 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.7 26.6 25.2 24.5 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 138 136 123 111 107 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 127 128 117 105 102 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 41 38 32 31 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 18 19 20 19 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 12 17 43 43 29 19 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 69 109 102 87 38 30 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 14 26 26 8 -21 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 593 684 774 973 1171 1668 1735 1491 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.6 23.2 24.4 25.6 28.4 31.4 35.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 61.0 60.4 59.0 57.5 53.6 49.1 43.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 13 18 20 23 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 26 24 25 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -22. -26. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 2. -3. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.9 61.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.41 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.5% 11.5% 8.3% 7.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.5% 4.3% 3.0% 2.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 39.0% 26.0% 16.0% 5.0% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 56 56 52 47 41 39 37 34 32 30 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 53 49 44 38 36 34 31 29 27 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 48 44 39 33 31 29 26 24 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 36 31 25 23 21 18 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT