* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 50 51 47 45 43 41 40 38 36 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 50 51 47 45 43 41 40 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 48 47 43 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 16 16 21 21 36 47 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 2 3 6 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 276 243 241 237 222 233 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 26.1 24.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 135 136 119 108 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 123 123 127 115 102 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 48 42 31 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 16 16 18 20 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -15 4 9 25 32 31 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 69 67 68 88 86 36 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 8 12 15 28 -16 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 503 557 616 722 829 1284 1824 1555 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.5 22.2 23.0 23.8 26.6 30.3 33.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.7 61.6 61.5 60.9 60.3 57.0 52.3 48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 10 15 24 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 46 32 23 21 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -18. -23. -26. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.8 61.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.9% 9.8% 7.0% 6.7% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.9% 3.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 25.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/20/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 50 51 47 45 43 41 40 38 36 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 48 49 45 43 41 39 38 36 34 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 45 41 39 37 35 34 32 30 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 38 34 32 30 28 27 25 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT