* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 41 44 45 37 36 35 34 34 33 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 41 44 45 37 36 35 34 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 39 40 38 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 21 18 21 23 46 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 2 2 3 8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 300 285 270 237 234 218 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.3 25.7 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 143 139 138 130 118 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 130 127 124 121 118 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -54.9 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 54 51 40 31 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -25 -30 -36 -5 22 40 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 22 21 47 60 83 66 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 5 6 12 17 -156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 612 535 473 551 637 844 1329 1389 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.1 22.1 23.0 24.3 27.5 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.3 61.3 62.3 62.2 62.2 60.7 57.4 50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 10 9 15 34 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 51 53 33 22 15 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -11. -16. -20. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.4 60.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.54 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.5% 9.0% 7.1% 6.4% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.3% 3.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/20/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 41 41 44 45 37 36 35 34 34 33 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 40 43 44 36 35 34 33 33 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 40 41 33 32 31 30 30 29 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 33 34 26 25 24 23 23 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT