* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL202019 11/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 35 37 39 38 34 32 30 26 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 35 37 39 38 34 32 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 25 25 27 20 23 35 52 47 36 40 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -4 -2 0 0 0 4 -7 -3 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 302 315 311 306 294 257 253 222 234 235 230 244 276 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.2 24.2 21.7 19.5 18.6 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 135 134 133 128 120 106 94 86 84 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 122 122 119 119 119 114 103 92 83 81 76 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -56.0 -56.6 -57.4 -58.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 2 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 52 51 46 34 27 30 35 34 34 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -31 -30 -40 -50 -20 12 7 -7 -20 -43 -108 -54 200 MB DIV 19 10 6 11 11 28 88 84 30 9 33 30 34 700-850 TADV -2 0 -5 -2 -3 5 14 15 -41 -44 -32 -25 76 LAND (KM) 774 737 701 679 681 774 1015 1446 1812 1585 1822 1180 185 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.0 23.2 24.8 27.2 30.5 34.4 38.0 40.9 42.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 59.0 59.6 60.1 60.5 60.4 58.8 55.4 50.7 43.6 34.3 23.1 11.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 7 6 8 15 22 32 39 44 47 43 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 26 29 29 22 19 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -13. -21. -29. -34. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. 2. 0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.8 58.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 INVEST 11/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.01 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.57 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.6% 5.1% 4.4% 2.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 INVEST 11/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 INVEST 11/19/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 34 35 37 39 38 34 32 30 26 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 32 34 36 35 31 29 27 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 28 30 32 31 27 25 23 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 23 25 24 20 18 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT