* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 47 43 41 37 27 22 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 47 38 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 46 37 33 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 33 34 33 44 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 252 253 253 243 246 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 152 154 153 155 150 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 127 129 130 132 128 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 66 64 64 61 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 23 21 18 16 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 20 33 63 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 70 62 55 59 50 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 18 13 9 6 -14 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -59 -113 -175 -257 -320 -198 -127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.5 33.1 34.2 35.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.1 86.6 86.1 85.2 84.3 81.6 78.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -16. -22. -27. -31. -35. -37. -39. -42. -45. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -9. -8. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -20. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. -30. -29. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -17. -19. -23. -33. -38. -42. -43. -46. -46. -49. -53. -58. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.9 87.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 47 38 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 50 45 42 40 39 39 39 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 51 48 46 45 45 45 45 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 45 44 44 44 44 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT