* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 65 63 61 54 44 33 24 21 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 65 63 61 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 67 64 61 58 37 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 29 27 24 32 40 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 0 4 0 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 268 271 272 254 250 237 236 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 149 151 160 157 155 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 120 122 125 133 130 128 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 3 1 4 2 5 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 66 70 68 65 56 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 24 25 24 20 16 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 24 -7 -4 32 11 71 55 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 94 57 30 61 83 83 46 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 13 12 20 20 10 -2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 95 77 52 12 2 -114 -222 -301 -191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.5 31.4 32.3 32.8 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.1 88.1 88.2 88.0 87.9 87.1 85.9 84.4 82.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 27 27 29 33 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -20. -27. -29. -31. -32. -33. -34. -35. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -26. -27. -29. -30. -30. -29. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -16. -26. -37. -46. -49. -52. -53. -54. -55. -57. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.3 88.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.22 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 13.6% 10.4% 9.4% 8.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 2( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 65 63 61 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 66 64 62 39 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 62 39 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 35 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT