* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 69 66 60 51 42 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 69 57 42 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 73 71 69 58 42 31 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 24 24 28 26 31 34 53 58 69 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 0 2 0 1 -1 -10 -9 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 275 261 265 264 244 246 239 236 243 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 147 147 149 158 159 156 156 152 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 121 121 122 131 131 129 128 125 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 5 3 1 4 1 4 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 62 65 69 67 61 51 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 24 24 21 17 14 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 32 31 -12 -13 27 26 68 56 39 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 71 84 53 42 69 68 66 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 15 14 15 14 3 -14 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 105 93 63 30 -7 -50 -179 -279 -256 -130 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.4 31.1 32.0 32.7 33.2 33.4 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.1 88.2 88.2 88.2 87.7 86.6 85.2 83.5 81.8 80.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 29 27 28 33 7 4 4 4 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -26. -33. -38. -39. -39. -40. -41. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -22. -26. -30. -31. -31. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -9. -15. -24. -33. -44. -53. -63. -63. -64. -64. -66. -68. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.1 88.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 12.3% 9.7% 9.1% 7.7% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.9% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 72 69 57 42 32 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 70 58 43 33 29 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 56 41 31 27 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 53 38 28 24 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT