* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 77 73 69 61 54 44 36 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 77 73 61 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 78 76 56 38 30 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 25 23 25 31 25 30 36 52 54 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -1 -3 -1 4 -2 -5 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 275 273 263 269 246 247 237 235 234 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 152 152 160 162 159 157 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 125 125 126 133 134 131 129 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 3 4 2 5 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 65 64 71 69 65 53 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 26 27 24 24 19 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 21 44 28 0 28 11 72 47 68 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 36 66 77 41 56 86 79 40 19 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 4 4 9 17 15 14 6 -7 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 93 75 68 61 1 -134 -213 -304 -200 -105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.7 31.6 32.2 32.9 33.1 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.1 88.3 88.5 88.6 88.0 86.9 85.8 84.2 82.9 81.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 6 6 7 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 42 35 29 29 35 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -21. -25. -29. -29. -29. -28. -29. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -6. -12. -18. -22. -29. -29. -29. -28. -28. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -19. -26. -36. -44. -55. -55. -56. -56. -57. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.8 88.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 12.0% 9.6% 9.0% 7.3% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.2% 3.8% 3.5% 2.7% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 4( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 78 77 73 61 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 80 79 78 77 73 61 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 71 59 35 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 54 30 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT