* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 88 87 83 76 70 62 52 39 28 26 26 27 28 27 23 V (KT) LAND 85 89 88 87 83 59 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 92 94 92 89 64 40 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 26 25 26 27 30 34 48 52 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -5 -4 -2 2 -1 -3 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 264 270 268 257 266 245 248 235 234 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 152 160 164 159 159 155 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 125 125 125 132 136 131 130 125 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 6 6 1 4 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 61 65 67 68 70 75 70 63 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 23 21 20 17 14 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 32 24 39 36 -9 18 24 66 42 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 34 34 55 74 49 79 54 64 38 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 15 4 7 12 14 11 9 -5 -24 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 160 116 75 77 49 -16 -123 -233 -326 -251 -150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.7 31.6 32.4 33.0 33.3 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.9 88.3 88.4 88.5 88.2 87.2 85.9 84.7 83.4 82.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 41 33 28 29 34 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -17. -21. -24. -28. -27. -26. -26. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -22. -27. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. 2. -2. -9. -15. -23. -33. -46. -57. -59. -59. -58. -57. -58. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 28.8 87.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.6% 20.0% 15.1% 12.8% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 19.3% 11.0% 7.6% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 27.2% 1.7% 0.5% 4.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.0% 13.7% 8.9% 8.2% 4.6% 5.2% 0.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 9( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 89 88 87 83 59 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 85 84 83 82 78 54 34 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 76 52 32 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 47 27 18 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 42 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 89 80 74 71 49 29 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 IN 12HR 85 89 88 79 73 69 49 40 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37