* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 90 89 89 82 76 65 54 39 27 23 23 25 26 26 22 V (KT) LAND 80 87 90 89 89 82 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 90 95 95 92 85 47 33 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 24 26 26 32 30 35 43 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 -3 5 -2 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 248 254 263 261 262 252 248 238 239 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 154 156 166 164 158 158 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 127 126 127 130 137 135 129 129 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 3 6 2 4 2 4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 62 65 67 66 72 69 64 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 24 25 23 21 17 14 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 58 28 20 44 -9 21 1 52 23 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 67 37 41 61 45 69 76 49 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 9 14 7 7 15 18 10 -3 -12 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 180 134 76 44 39 1 -86 -198 -299 -354 -239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 30.4 31.5 32.3 33.0 33.3 33.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.8 88.3 88.6 89.0 88.9 88.2 87.0 85.9 84.6 83.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 5 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 46 38 29 29 40 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -24. -28. -28. -27. -27. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -10. -14. -21. -25. -26. -26. -25. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 9. 9. 2. -4. -15. -26. -41. -53. -57. -57. -55. -54. -54. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.7 87.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 15.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.9% 40.0% 32.5% 29.5% 12.6% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 28.7% 35.3% 25.7% 25.1% 9.5% 14.7% 4.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 33.2% 0.8% 0.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 34.3% 25.4% 19.6% 19.2% 7.4% 9.0% 1.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 30.0% 29.0% 21.0% 15.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 12( 18) 11( 27) 8( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 87 90 89 89 82 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 80 79 82 81 81 74 38 25 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 75 68 32 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 63 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 87 78 72 69 64 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 87 90 81 75 71 35 22 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16