* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 63 65 67 63 57 48 37 25 23 21 19 17 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 63 65 67 44 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 65 64 44 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 14 18 23 21 24 26 36 42 59 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 3 1 -1 -4 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 255 244 256 262 251 258 246 245 237 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 152 154 164 166 161 158 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 127 126 125 127 136 137 132 129 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 5 3 5 1 3 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 62 64 69 71 72 64 58 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 24 24 21 17 14 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 37 57 25 16 34 -5 14 27 30 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 36 44 38 49 79 51 81 25 36 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 10 6 12 19 12 -4 -12 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 175 120 85 59 28 -48 -159 -282 -359 -294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 30.1 31.1 32.1 32.9 33.4 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.9 87.4 87.9 88.2 88.5 88.7 88.3 87.5 86.3 85.0 83.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 4 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 53 45 36 30 33 7 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -20. -29. -32. -34. -36. -39. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. -1. -6. -11. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 8. 2. -7. -18. -30. -32. -34. -36. -38. -39. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.4 86.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 17.4% 12.7% 11.2% 9.6% 11.4% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 10.0% 4.5% 3.4% 1.8% 7.4% 4.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.3% 5.8% 4.9% 3.8% 6.3% 4.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 63 65 67 44 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 61 63 40 28 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 57 34 22 19 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 49 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT