* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 57 59 63 62 58 51 42 29 27 26 25 23 21 21 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 57 59 63 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 55 57 60 43 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 13 16 20 21 26 28 40 52 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 2 1 2 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 276 244 240 252 253 256 247 248 241 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 154 155 156 156 165 166 166 163 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 129 129 129 129 136 136 137 134 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 5 6 3 4 2 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 67 63 68 69 74 68 62 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 22 24 21 18 15 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 50 64 32 43 -12 24 17 48 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 30 43 55 31 63 58 85 68 43 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -2 1 6 11 7 21 18 11 0 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 229 172 106 65 25 8 -55 -121 -195 -296 -385 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.7 30.7 31.5 32.5 33.2 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.9 87.5 88.1 88.5 88.9 89.5 89.6 89.0 88.1 86.8 85.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 63 52 40 34 31 14 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -24. -27. -29. -31. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 13. 12. 8. 2. -8. -21. -23. -24. -25. -27. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.2 86.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.3% 11.9% 10.4% 9.0% 10.9% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 8.6% 3.7% 2.8% 1.6% 7.3% 4.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.4% 5.2% 4.4% 3.5% 6.0% 5.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 54 57 59 63 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 57 61 42 31 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 51 55 36 25 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 46 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT