* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 58 61 64 66 61 56 49 39 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 58 61 64 59 37 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 56 58 62 56 36 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 16 14 19 24 23 26 34 42 61 65 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 2 0 -1 -4 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 279 274 256 248 269 252 254 243 247 236 237 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 155 156 156 160 168 166 166 161 157 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 134 131 130 128 132 138 137 136 134 132 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 7 3 5 1 4 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 65 66 64 70 73 74 68 66 60 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 22 22 21 18 15 14 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 25 24 51 61 24 27 -20 6 6 20 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 42 24 41 41 45 70 46 81 40 53 32 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 -2 1 5 10 13 12 11 3 -12 -31 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 188 208 172 108 43 14 0 -105 -185 -276 -384 -343 -221 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.5 30.2 31.3 32.3 33.2 33.8 34.3 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.7 87.5 88.1 88.7 89.3 89.6 89.3 88.7 87.6 86.1 83.9 81.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 8 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 38 63 52 36 29 28 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -12. -20. -29. -38. -41. -44. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -19. -22. -21. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 11. 6. -1. -11. -23. -33. -35. -39. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.1 85.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.0% 11.6% 9.9% 8.5% 10.5% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 13.7% 6.3% 4.7% 2.6% 5.2% 4.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 9.9% 6.0% 4.9% 3.7% 5.2% 5.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 58 61 64 59 37 30 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 55 58 61 56 34 27 25 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 56 51 29 22 20 19 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 46 41 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT