* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 58 61 64 68 66 61 55 46 37 28 25 22 22 21 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 58 61 57 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 59 61 65 49 32 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 16 16 13 23 24 26 33 44 50 62 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 0 -2 -1 -4 3 0 1 -2 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 271 265 263 243 252 257 255 242 244 236 242 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 30.0 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.5 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 157 157 156 167 170 170 166 167 161 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 135 133 132 130 137 147 141 136 138 135 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.3 -53.0 -53.7 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 8 4 5 3 4 2 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 64 67 63 68 68 71 65 63 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 20 20 21 18 15 14 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 47 23 27 62 37 39 -23 -8 -2 23 -22 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 73 42 22 43 43 59 45 56 65 44 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 -3 0 12 6 14 11 8 -8 -8 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 225 214 181 114 52 0 -5 -50 -237 -320 -356 -449 -349 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.4 30.2 30.8 32.5 33.5 33.9 34.5 35.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.6 86.5 87.4 88.1 88.8 89.8 90.4 90.4 90.0 89.0 87.4 85.1 82.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 6 5 4 6 7 6 8 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 34 60 63 43 29 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -11. -18. -26. -33. -36. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. -0. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 16. 11. 5. -4. -13. -22. -25. -28. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.7 85.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.11 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.9% 11.5% 9.6% 8.1% 10.5% 10.7% 9.3% Logistic: 1.4% 6.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 2.3% 2.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.5% 4.7% 3.6% 2.8% 4.3% 4.5% 3.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/13/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 58 61 57 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 57 53 39 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 48 34 23 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT