* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 66 72 74 74 69 62 54 44 34 28 23 22 21 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 66 72 61 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 66 70 76 65 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 15 16 20 20 23 27 33 42 59 58 61 55 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 0 -3 -1 -1 0 2 -5 -6 -8 -4 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 291 262 261 251 228 251 240 258 239 240 238 242 243 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 30.2 30.4 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.7 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 158 157 156 158 169 169 168 167 162 157 147 143 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 137 136 134 131 131 141 144 139 139 136 130 121 117 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 7 2 5 1 3 0 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 63 63 66 64 69 73 73 69 67 63 63 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 20 21 21 19 16 14 12 10 8 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 30 50 29 30 73 29 13 -34 -12 -8 22 -4 -7 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 47 67 39 30 54 41 54 39 78 45 45 37 54 49 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 2 -7 3 4 12 16 10 0 -13 -19 -10 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 224 214 192 105 26 -7 -27 -114 -215 -284 -431 -344 -250 -137 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.6 30.6 31.4 32.3 33.3 34.2 34.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.6 86.5 87.3 88.2 89.4 90.1 90.1 90.1 89.4 88.0 85.9 83.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 5 4 4 5 6 9 11 10 9 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 29 34 58 62 30 31 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -18. -26. -34. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 22. 24. 24. 19. 12. 4. -6. -16. -22. -27. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.3 84.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.08 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.1% 13.0% 10.8% 8.9% 11.6% 12.6% 13.2% Logistic: 2.8% 13.5% 5.8% 3.4% 1.2% 9.7% 9.3% 4.5% Bayesian: 9.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 11.1% 6.4% 4.8% 3.4% 7.1% 7.3% 5.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 59 63 66 72 61 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 60 66 55 39 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 59 48 32 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT