* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 57 60 67 72 78 72 69 60 50 38 29 17 17 17 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 57 60 67 72 78 51 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 57 60 68 74 74 50 35 29 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 10 10 13 12 21 17 25 25 40 53 66 63 65 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -5 -5 -6 -1 -4 0 0 0 -4 -9 -8 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 315 295 279 273 244 252 248 257 255 248 241 247 242 252 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.3 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 163 161 161 161 158 157 163 168 169 168 167 160 157 149 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 143 141 139 138 133 131 134 139 139 138 138 134 131 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -53.4 -53.9 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 8 4 6 2 4 2 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 65 62 66 62 69 71 76 67 61 52 53 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 19 20 22 18 17 14 11 9 7 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 22 36 25 58 25 20 -41 -3 -4 27 -25 4 -39 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 16 40 62 42 45 34 51 53 69 55 8 6 18 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 -1 3 2 0 13 9 23 21 10 -8 -19 -31 -26 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 113 170 235 217 223 110 8 2 -42 -116 -185 -279 -426 -332 -266 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.7 29.2 29.9 30.6 31.4 32.3 33.2 34.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.3 85.2 86.0 86.8 88.1 89.0 89.4 89.5 89.3 88.7 87.4 85.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 5 6 8 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 34 32 31 41 57 31 33 25 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -14. -23. -32. -41. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -14. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 22. 27. 33. 27. 24. 15. 5. -7. -16. -28. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.7 83.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.4% 12.4% 10.0% 8.3% 11.5% 12.4% 15.6% Logistic: 1.8% 9.8% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 5.4% 10.0% 8.8% Bayesian: 4.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 9.6% 5.5% 3.9% 2.9% 5.7% 7.5% 8.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/13/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 52 57 60 67 72 78 51 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 47 52 55 62 67 73 46 31 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 49 56 61 67 40 25 19 17 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 50 56 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT