* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 47 53 61 65 68 63 56 48 40 30 20 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 47 53 61 65 68 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 45 50 56 60 60 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 10 10 13 19 21 19 24 31 43 54 56 64 56 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -1 -3 -3 0 0 1 -2 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 309 317 319 302 278 267 235 262 243 262 243 245 242 245 243 244 234 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 164 164 161 158 158 157 163 167 168 167 161 157 156 149 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 145 143 140 134 132 130 133 136 138 140 134 128 129 127 121 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.7 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 8 6 7 3 5 2 4 2 4 0 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 62 65 64 67 66 71 73 72 67 62 57 56 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 20 18 15 12 10 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 19 0 -9 12 32 13 49 1 2 -34 -5 -1 24 -14 -40 -50 -47 200 MB DIV 21 22 15 31 59 22 27 28 77 47 63 26 34 17 13 0 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 1 3 -3 1 12 11 16 6 4 -10 -17 -19 -22 -23 LAND (KM) 62 111 171 237 226 185 69 10 21 -51 -127 -208 -376 -361 -246 -209 -134 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.4 28.8 29.4 30.1 30.8 31.6 32.6 33.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.3 84.3 85.2 86.1 87.4 88.5 89.2 89.2 89.2 88.9 87.8 85.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 3 4 5 8 8 7 8 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 81 58 35 33 32 61 44 29 38 26 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -28. -38. -44. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. -4. -9. -12. -15. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 26. 30. 33. 28. 21. 13. 5. -5. -15. -20. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.0 82.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.2% 11.5% 8.8% 7.3% 10.2% 11.3% 16.6% Logistic: 3.5% 17.6% 8.2% 4.3% 1.9% 8.7% 16.1% 18.2% Bayesian: 1.5% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 12.5% 6.7% 4.4% 3.1% 6.4% 9.3% 11.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 47 53 61 65 68 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 50 58 62 65 42 30 26 24 24 24 24 DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 44 52 56 59 36 24 20 18 18 18 18 DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 43 47 50 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT